Orono, Maine 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

924
FXUS61 KCAR 211311
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
911 AM EDT Sat Jun 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the area today. A weather disturbance
will approach from the west tonight and cross the region early
Sunday morning. A warm upper ridge of high pressure will build
across the area Sunday into early next week. A cold front will cross
the area Tuesday followed by high pressure on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
9:10 AM Update...Forecast remains on track with a clear sky
across the area.

Previous Discussion...High pressure over the area will bring
plenty of sunshine today with seasonable high temperatures from
the mid 70s north to the upper 70s over the interior south. This
will be followed by a mostly clear evening as the high slides
southeast of the area.

Low pressure associated with a mesoscale convective complex will
approach after midnight tonight and cross the area early Sunday
morning as it rides over a large and very warm upper high to the
south. This system will advect warm and humid air northward in
the low to mid levels beneath a relatively cooler pocket of air
aloft. This will result in elevated convection producing
potentially heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms during the
predawn hours Sunday morning as it moves in. There are some
differences in the forecast track of this system but most
guidance favors the heavier rain and elevated convection across
the north very early Sunday morning. Severe thunderstorms are
not anticipated with the convection being elevated. However,
locally heavy rain may result in some ponding of poor drainage
areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MCS likely to be ongoing at the start of the day on Sunday. Hires
guidance and deterministic runs are painting two different pictures
with movement of MCS. Latest deterministic runs are bringing the
system over the northern half of the CWA while several runs from the
hires models are diving the core of the MCS south into the better
instability. Gut instinct is suggesting the hires models have a
better handle on ultimate track of complex but cannot ignore other
guidance. Therefore have gone likely to categorical over the entire
CWA at 12z Sunday with locally heavy rainfall over nrn Aroostook in
the morning and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall for areas to the
south. PW values increase twd 1.80 inches over all areas so airmass
will be primed to produce high rainfall rates, especially with 50-
60kts LLJ ahead of the system moving thru. One-hour FFG is as low as
1 inch over the Central Highlands that received heavy rainfall on
Friday and the threat for isolated flash flooding certainly exists
at the beginning of the period, though basin average amounts should
be right around 0.50 inches.

Lingering showers should end late in the afternoon/evening hours as
ridge builds back in behind wave moving into the Maritimes. 597dm
high looks to be centered over the Delmarva Monday morning with H5
ridge axis building into the northeast Sunday night and early
Monday. Storm track looks to remain just to our north into Monday
afternoon. Temperatures on Monday will climb well above normal with
m/u 80s over all interior areas as H8 temps climb toward +20C. With
sfc dwpts climbing thru the 60s this will bring heat indices toward
90 degrees over interior sections in the afternoon.

There will be little relief from the heat on Monday night as SW
winds keep H8 temps around +20C overnight. Low temperatures
overnight will be around 70 degrees. Lowest temperatures for 24-hour
period from midnight to midnight may be recorded just after midnight
Tuesday night behind fropa (more on this in the long term) but, if
not, record max minimums may be rivaled in certain areas for June
24th.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
By 12z Tuesday temps will start out in the 70s for inland locations.
An approaching cold front will be located back to our northwest
Tuesday morning, eventually moving through during the day. The
timing of the front will determine how high temperatures can get. As
of this time expect that most areas over the north will top out
around 90 degrees early in the afternoon just ahead of the front.
Interior Downeast and the Bangor region look to approach the middle
to upper 90s and with dewpoints remaining in the 60s/near 70 maximum
heat indices should easily climb to and exceed 100 degrees. Cannot
rule out the need for an Extreme Heat Watch for the Bangor area
Tuesday afternoon with Heat Advisories south of a Dover-Foxcroft to
Houlton line. Exception to impending heat headlines look to be
across the north and along the immediate coast as interior sections
look to be the most likely areas to see impacts from the heat.

With the cold front moving through Tuesday afternoon to help break
the heat, showers and thunderstorms are expected. Cannot rule out
strong storms during the day Tuesday as fropa occurs.

Following fropa temperatures will cool down to more seasonal values,
and possibly cooler than normal. H5 high gets suppressed further to
the south with zonal flow remaining acrs the northeast leading to
chc for showers thru the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
VFR conditions are expected today into the first half of
tonight. Conditions may then lower to MVFR and IFR late tonight
as a complex of showers and thunderstorms moves in from the
west. Winds will be light SW tonight then S tonight, increasing
late.

SHORT TERM:
Sunday...IFR early in showers and thunderstorms, producing
locally heavy rain before improving late morning. S winds
5-15kts becoming WNW in the afternoon gusting to 20kts. LLWS
possible early.

Sunday night-Monday night...Mainly VFR. NW 5-10kts early
becoming S 5-10kts Monday.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Scattered showers and storms in the
afternoon, leading to brief MVFR conditions. WSW 5-15kts gusting
to 20kts.

Tuesday night-Wednesday...VFR. NW 5-15kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Wind and seas will be below SCA today and tonight.
Southerly winds may approach 25 kt in gusts late tonight. Seas
will run around 4 ft today then 3 to 4 ft tonight.

SHORT TERM: SCA over the outer waters for winds and seas on
Sunday. Conditions will diminish Sunday evening with no
headlines expected through the middle of the week. Warm and
humid air moving over the waters likely to reduce visibilities
in fog Monday and Tuesday mornings.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029-
     030.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$


Near Term...Bloomer/Clark
Short Term...Buster
Long Term...Buster
Aviation...Bloomer/Clark/Buster
Marine...Bloomer/Clark/Buster